5/21/20 Why We Still Need Social Distancing Now
B’chasdei Hashem, the situation in Lakewood is much better now than it has been at any time since the COVID-19 Pandemic began. New cases of COVID-19 infection in our Kehilla have, B’H, dropped drastically — to the point that it may seem like the illness is out of our Kehilla.
This has many people asking a similar question:
“If the virus is not in Lakewood anymore, why do we need to continue
these drastic restrictions? Why can’t things go back to normal, to the way it
was before COVID-19? How long are we supposed to be locked down like this?!”
In fact, the COVID-19 virus and illness is not prevalent right now in Lakewood. Everyone can see that our Tefillos and Hishtadlus have had a great impact. However, even though we do not see the illness amongst us now, it is definitely not entirely gone. The COVID-19 virus still poses a great danger for our Kehilla were it to flare up again — even briefly.
While there are specific ways that we can responsibly loosen some of the restrictions on ourselves, it is important to understand what is happening now, what could happen, and what we expect to come.
Our responsible actions as individuals now — while still very difficult for us —
may likely mean the difference between life and, Chas V’Sholom, death
for vulnerable members of our Kehilla.
Here are two key points:
The first point that is important for our Kehilla to know:
It is established throughout history
that pandemic outbreaks of illness come in waves.
After the first wave of a pandemic illness a “lull” comes. During the lull, the illness recedes from the community, like a tide of water that pulls back from the land after a tidal wave crashes in, and the illness seemingly disappears. However, following the lull a second pandemic wave comes, sweeping through the population once again. While the second wave of illness is usually not as large as the first wave of illness, its destructive powers are nevertheless the same.
We have just lived through the first pandemic wave of COVID-19 illness. We witnessed before our eyes the awesome, devastating, destructive power of the COVID-19 virus. B’Chasdei HaShem, now, at this very moment, we are right in the middle of the lull
— and it feels like ...finally, finally, finally... THE VIRUS IS GONE!!!
However, we must realize that the risk of a future second wave is a real and present dangerous risk to our Kehilla.
The second point that it is important for our Kehilla to know:
Although COVID-19 illness is almost gone in Lakewood at this moment,
the COVID-19 virus is still actively infecting people
throughout New Jersey and New York.
In our pediatric practice alone, we have 100-200 entire families who had no symptoms of illness during this whole period! Lakewood now has perhaps thousands of entire families who are not immune to the COVID-19 virus and who are vulnerable to infection. In addition, the vast majority of the elderly and other high-risk individuals properly quarantined themselves early on, and did not get infected during this Pandemic. They are all still not immune to the virus and are vulnerable to infection.
At the same time, there are hundreds of newly active cases of COVID-19 illness in the towns around us and in the region. Should we let our guard down and push the restrictions aside, a single contagious individual could re-introduce the virus back into our community. Lo Aleinu, a spark could be lit that would wreak havoc again.
Our Kehilla is not automatically safe now. We are at risk even now — even before a second wave. It is our responsibility to recognize this risk and to act individually in a way that protects those in our Kehilla who are still susceptible to COVID-19 infection and its potential extreme dangers.
This is why SOCIAL DISTANCING and MASKS
are still so important now.
Yes, this is difficult, and we don’t necessarily see what it accomplishes. But right now, going into the future, Social Distancing and masks are our main lines of defense, for ourselves, our loved ones and our community.
The fact that we are not seeing new cases in Lakewood now means that we have had great Siyata D’Shmaya, and we must be encouraged by this. At the same time,
Our Kehilla is still at great risk.
The main way that our lives will be able to return to the pre-COVID-19 normal days that we knew is when a vaccine is developed that can help create a high enough level of immunity throughout our entire community to protect everyone.
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In upcoming emails, we hope to, B’ezras HaShem, address many questions people have, including:
If the current situation is safer than before, how does it change the measures we must take to prevent the virus from coming back? How will it make things easier for us?
What about the people who already had the illness?
What about the entire families and our elderly and high-risk loved ones who did not have the illness?
What about going away for Shavuos? Should we? Is it safe?
How can antibody testing help us?
What about camp and summer activities?
Children playing together?
Learning and davening in Shul?
As well as more information about the rare new pediatric condition affecting children.
What if an effective vaccine cannot be developed?
ReplyDeleteDAVEN AND TESHUVA -EITHER WAY
DeleteWHY CAN'T EVERONE JUST WEAR A MASK??? IT'S JUST PLAIN SELFISH NOT TO!
ReplyDeleteThank you doc for all the research and guidance.
ReplyDeleteKinder pediatrics group
DeleteI wish Lakewood had more doctors like this. People who don't light their hair on fire, but are also responsible by what they say. Whoever this is, I applaud him.
ReplyDeleteThanks Dr. for your well reasoned information. While there is a possibility of a second wave (so viral influenza pandemics have them, others don't), how does that inform our actions going forward?
ReplyDeleteThe only way to guarantee protection from another wave is herd immunity, this is only achieved via exposure of 70% or more of the population. This can be achieved via natural exposure, or via a vaccine.
There is no guarantee there ever will be a vaccine, and if there is one, it may take as long as 18 months or more for it to be widely available. Even if a vaccine is created in record time, it will not arrive before the fall, which is when a 2nd wave would likely hit.
It is unrealistic to shut down the entire country till the end of the fall. Even if one does not care about destroying peoples business and income, the emotional toll of a prolonged shutdown, the long term effects of denying social and educational development of children etc. The fact is people are not going to comply with shutdowns much longer (this is not just about Lakewood, people are beginning to defy these executive orders all over the country).
On the one hand, a lockdown can prevent people from getting the virus (even that is debatable, as Cuomo himself has reported that many people who were in extended lockdown still got the virus). On the other hand, people being ion lockdown prevents herd immunity and makes them more susceptible to a second wave.
The NIAH has speculated that the difference between asymptomatic Covid19 and symptomatic ones, is the viral load the person was exposed to. the experts have also speculated that the virus is likely seasonal (which is why the 2nd wave if it comes, would likely happen in the fall). That being the case, an argument can be made that people would be better off being exposed in the summer, when the viral load is likely limited. As a result, those who are exposed, are more likely to be asymptomatic, while at the same time, their body would develop some antibodies to the virus. This would expedite herd immunity.
If an extreme lockdown is in effect until the fall, and those who have not been symptomatic have had zero exposure and zero antibodies, this would make them more susceptible to having a severe second wave.
I am not saying that some precaution is not necessary, I am no expert, just pointing out some facts.
1) A complete lockdown is not going to happen much longer, regardless of the governors policies
2) The effectiveness of the lockdowns is unknown, particularly when weighed against the cost of the lockdowns (there has been no cost/benefit analysis, and likely, there is not enough data to perform one).
3) There are very real risks including health risks as a result of the lockdown. CDC estimates 80k people will die because of a lack of early detection of cancer through screenings, and that is just one sickness alone. It does not take into account other illnesses that has gone undetected. Even on minor issues like dental care, how many cavities are now going to require root canals? how many root canals are now going to lead to infection?
4) Maybe there is a happy medium, where a balanced approach can mitigate the danger s of both a second wave, as well as the damage the lockdowns have caused.
Maybe it's just me, but you don't seem to have read what the doctor wrote. He said that masks and social distancing can prevent you from getting sick both during a outbreak and during a second wave. Yet you assert (falsely) that he is arguing FOR a lockdown (he isn't) and that the only way to be protected during a second wave is through herd immunity (it isn't - masks and social distancing can achieve the same thing).
DeleteIt's really sad that you feel the need to do this sort of dishonest twisting of his words. What do you care if people listen to him and prevent themselves from getting sick? Are you such an Achzor that you need more sick people?
Kudos to Dr. Fenster. I hope you will continue posting his updates.
Bravo. ירבו כמוך בישראל - especially among Lakewood doctors!
ReplyDeletePoint 1) there's no evidence that there will be a 2nd wave even if we completely reopen now. Everyone who talks about 2nd waves points to the 1918 Spanish Flu. But there's enough reason to believe that was very different (most, if not all, viruses since then did NOT comes in waves). It was also very different times - the world is a much faster place today than a 100 years ago, what took 2 years then takes weeks/months today.
ReplyDeletePoint 2) regarding face masks, OK, even if we are to buy into this 2nd wave paranoia, why should EVERYONE wear a mask? Anyone who's had the virus already can no longer pass it on. Same deal for children under 10 (no known cases of them passing it on to adults). Sure, we don't know 100% for certain, but since when do we operate under such extreme measures just because there's a 1% chance?! Bottom line, you can only get away with fear mongering and being less than truthful for so long. The reason nobody is listening and just completely ignoring our government, doctors, and "leaders" - is exactly because we're tired of being lied to and hence don't believe anything at all even if some of it has merit.
If you want to give medical advise go to medical school
ReplyDeleteOtherwise until you can tell me how the respiratory system operates I will have consider you a quack
But don’t worry you are in good company
With those who believe :
man didn’t really land on the moon
That there are UFO’s
Donald Trump is really a KGB agent
Gravity doesn’t exist