Thursday, November 4, 2021

Election Update and Analysis

New statement from Jack Ciattarelli  "The governor's victory speech last night was premature. No one should be declaring victory or conceding the election until every legal vote is counted." Says his decision on recount may not be for a week or two.

 -The era of trusting political askanim in the frum community is changing as was evident in the election results from Brooklyn - Lakewood. Control of the bloc vote is not a guarantee anymore as people will do what they want regardless of what they are told through letters of roshei yeshiva and rabbonim, robocalls and the media. There is a mistrust by the public of political askanim of having been owned by politicians or other factors that come along with politics.  

- People just don't  vote  because they either have given up as there is no  new candidates  locally,  and dont feel there is much to change with the same incumbants and no teem limits. some find it hard to go out and vote with long lines at polling stations. This year 1100  took advantage of early voting

- Could Lakewood have made the difference? It is hard to know as the numbers are not final but what is clear from the results is there was a low turnout and people stayed home. You can't compare an off year gov race to the 2017 elections with Trump on the ticket as some pundits have done. 

Had the Vaad endorsed Ciattarelli most

probably there would have had a much higher voter turnout and easily could have had 20k+ votes and less votes for murphy. People stayed home not to be put in a position to vote against what they personaly believe in. The Campaign pushing for Murphy ended up suppressing votes with claims that he would win in a landslide which turned out not to be true and people opted for shev veal taaseh.

-Askanim pushed an ad campaign to get voter turnout but at the same time did not want votes for Ciattarelli which kept voters away.

-In Jackson despite meetings and letters the frum  candidate came in last, due to low turnout. 

-Websites and social media don't sway the frum vote much, newspapers still have a higher influence, but more importantly people make up their own minds about what fits with their hashkafa outlook.    

-On a local Level the incumbent township committeeman got 39% and 29% of the vote the others got 20% and 9% with no name recognition at all.  Voter turnout was at 35%.

-The Lakewood Vaad in its current form is done. They know it themselves and have pledged to change years ago but nothing happened. While they control a bloc of 3-4k votes the election results showed that most people do what they feel is best for them. They have lost all credibility and trust and the political endorsements fosters resentment with our neighbors and within the community. A growing town with hundreds of rabbonim who lead their communities can't continue to be told what to do by a small group of unknown balei batim.   

31 comments:

  1. Could Lakewood have made the difference?
    Of course .
    We cause a seismic impact and Way Beyond the numbers with ripple effects
    it would be foolhardy to sell ourselves short and estimate by numbers
    We're worth 5X
    & make an atmosphere that goes far beyond
    as a Russian Defector even said

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  2. Agreed! Couldn't have said better!

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  3. Talk radio is the biggest influencer even without Rush Limbaugh

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    Replies
    1. What does that say about the עם חכם ונבון?

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    2. Listen to the תורה makes us an עם נבון וחכם, not having independant political ideas

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    3. If we are stupid enough to follow entertainers and shallow heads like Rush Limbaugh, the Torah has not sufficiently penetrated our intellects

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    4. JB, you really are a piece of work. Painting anyone who has a different view as being "stupid" and puppets of entertainers.

      This is a difficult concept for you to grasp, but perhaps they listened to opposing views, analyzed the information, and came to their own conclusions

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  4. “Election Update And Analysis”?
    More like “Election Opinions Out Of The Hat With Zero Proof And Other Agendas”

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  5. Murphy won by close to 50,000 votes. Nothing Lakewood could have done would have changed this election.

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    Replies
    1. Willfully naive? Or false?
      As elucidated previously

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  6. Unfortunately during covid emunas chachmim flew out the window the olam lost trust in the letters from rabbonim as askanim bullied them and strong armed them to write letters and put their signatures only for them to regret or publicly change their mind the next day as was done during the the porch minyanim fiasco and shutting down shuls

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    Replies
    1. Keep up the Vaad mantra of fake claims to daas torah.

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  7. - Why such long lines with low turnout?
    - Jackson many votes by mail and not counted yet, or thrown in garbage....
    - Shnals get out the vote campaign sounded like a Murphy ad, so it was ineffective. And his claims of all the good they've done, wasn't true, so it backfired. It should've had the opposite message. He's got to go. Goodbye Avi should be Agudah next theme.

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  8. The get out the vote video by Agudah, was simply idiotic. "We did so much for you, the little bit of freedom of religion that you had, was all thanks to us and out deep connections with NJ government." Had the message been reversed, something like "you suffered because of low turnout, politicians don't see citizens they only see voters." But that would have backfired on Murphy and "AAA"

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  9. The vaad was so busy looking at polls, yet they should've read the Lakewood polls and endorsed jack ciattarelli, that would've made them look relevant to politicians. They would be able to show a block. Of 20-30 thousand votes. Now they can show 4000 votes at best.

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  10. Agudah was supposed to be impartial instead they went all in for Murphy short of publicly endorsing him. That is not their job and nobody trusts the quiet behind the scenes shtadlanus that goes on, after it was discovered what they did with covid testing in Lakewood.

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  11. The Bloc vote was for Ciattareli but the VAAD and Agudah broke it apart by pushing Murphy

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  12. I wasn't following the VAAD. I was following the letter by the Igud Hamosdos, our trusted and selfless Rosh Mosdos.
    Why doesn't anyone listen to THEM??

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  13. Agudah headquarters need to take a hard look at the New Jersey branch.

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  14. "-In Jackson despite meetings and letters the frum candidate came in last, due to low turnout. "

    This is utterly incorrect, as the general populace had 3 votes to give, and the Jewish community only utilized 1 it was statistically IMPOSSIBLE for Tzvi Herman to win unless we had 3 times the turnout!!! simply stated it was never possible for him to win.

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    Replies
    1. You make no sense, think again about what you wrote.

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    2. Can u explain what you mean

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    3. Idiotic, you can't give same person all three votes. The proper way to vote for a single preferred candidate in a race like this, is to vote for only one, so you don't dilute his count with your other votes. Either way he Herman got about 2320 votes. Which indicates mediocre turnout. Had he gotten 5306, which is higher than the current 3rd place winner, he would've won a seat.

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    4. There was a total of about 37000 vote for 8 candidates other than Herman. The most any of those candidates got is 6638 16.9%.

      Erica OSMOND (NPA)
      6,638
      16.9%
      Tina M. KAS (NPA)
      6,361
      16.2%
      Giuseppe PALMERI (NPA)
      5,305
      13.5%
      John SPALTHOFF (NPA)
      4,890
      12.4%
      Megan GARDELLA (NPA)
      4,028
      10.2%
      Jessica EDWARDS (NPA)
      3,767
      9.6%
      Gustavo 'Gus' ACEVEDO (NPA)
      3,334
      8.5%
      Akxsi KEEGAN (NPA)
      2,529
      6.4%
      Tzvi HERMAN (NPA)
      2,320
      5.9%
      WRITE-IN (NPA)
      171
      0.4%

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    5. OK, I’ll explain: Let us try to simplify the voting situation in Jackson. The frum vote is approximately 10-15% of the population. Let us simplify that as 1/7 Let’s further simplify this by saying that Jackson has 7 voters, one who is frum. Let us for the sake of simplicity also have 7 candidates (one who is Herman).
      When these seven voters go to vote, the frum one votes for TH. The other 6, each vote for 3 of the other candidates for a total of 18 votes. Although usually some of the candidates are more popular than others, we will say that they all split the vote equally. That means that each of the 6 candidates besides TH got 3 votes, and TH only got one. For TH to win, he would have needed at LEAST 3 votes a statistical impossibility.

      I rest my case.

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    6. Anon 6:58 look at the totals he got 2300 he needed 5300. Are there 5300 possible votes for Herman or not? Likely there could've been if not for abysmal turnout. Bottom line is people like to kvetch, but are too lazy to get off their behinds to vote, for hey could've voted early, by mail, or in person. They only have themselves to blame. What's worse is other Jackson office holders see these numbers, and will continue. This election was not just for people who have children in the education system the low turnout is everyone's loss.

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    7. For TH to win, he needed anything more than 13.5% of the vote. That's far from a statistical impossibly. I rest my case.

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    8. 13.5% is about the ENTIRE frum vote of Jackson. A good turnout never exceeds 60-70% (there always people who can’t/don’t vote etc...) to expect 100%+ turnout it a statistical impossibility.

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    9. Getting your nails done so more, I understand. So important you can't do early or vote by mail. Enjoy more years of representation.

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  15. no such thing as igud Hamosdos!! fact!! ask your kid's mossad they will tell you so. another one of the lies and falsehoods that were used to silence the popular vote!!
    Please dont believe me! Do your own research, there is no IGUD HAMOSDOS!!

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  16. This article made a simple fact sound complicated. Fact: The Vaad failed in their failed in their main mission. According to Rabbi Schenkolevski (in an interview with the Yated) the Vaad was formed to help yungeleit vote. They continue to state that their mission is to enable a bloc vote. Yet they did the exact opposite. Because of them tens of thousands didn't vote. It's time to create a committee of askanim whose sole goal is to educate the community of the importance of voting. Vote for yourself if you want to but go vote. If you don't vote you don't exist politically.

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