Israel Election Update

- UTJ is floating a coalition with Eisenkot. It’s a fantasy. The math: change bloc 48 + UTJ 7 = 55. The rest would have to come from Ra’am. So Eisenkot’s “Zionist draft government” would rest on Goldknopf and Abbas from the outside. If he pulls that off, he doesn’t deserve the premiership. He deserves the Nobel Peace Prize. UTJ isn’t one party. It’s three feuding factions and seven men with seven interests. But the frustration is real. UTJ’s version: we went with the right. Smotrich got his settlements, Netanyahu got power, Ben-Gvir got the police, and the Charedim got draft orders, arrests and a travel ban on “deserters.” So maybe Eisenkot, Lieberman and Golan will get the attorney general off our backs.

Three reasons it won’t happen: The numbers don’t add up.

You can’t run an entire campaign on drafting the charedim, then bring them in the next morning.

The “leftist court” theory doesn’t hold. The judges toughest on the charedim were Sohlberg, Mintz and Willner.

Unity government? Eisenkot has peaked. From a negligible third place to almost prime minister. But his camp changes leaders like socks, and new elections won’t get him from 48 to 61. Joining Netanyahu is unlikely given his character, but Israel can’t afford another election. And Netanyahu, now holding the better cards, has little reason to drop Ben-Gvir Amit Segal analysis.

- 100% of votes counted:  No bloc reaches the 61 seats needed for a majority.

- Netanyahu bloc: 53

- Eisenkot bloc: 48

- Arab parties: 19

 Likud 27

 Yashar 21

 Together (Beyachad) 12

 Joint List 11

 Democrats 8

 Ra'am 8

 Otzma Yehudit 7

 Yisrael Beytenu 7

 UTJ 7

 Shas 6

 Religious Zionism 6

- In light of Lieberman’s rejection statement of Bibi and the Shin Bet investigation: We’ve moved much closer to the 2027 elections. Amit Segal reports The likelihood of the entire election being invalidated is extremely slim, given the time constraints. The same is, of course, true of holding a new vote. There are thousands of polling stations in Arab communities. In my opinion, this simply accelerates the possibility of either a unity government or new elections, and in either case, there would no longer be any need to invalidate part of the results

- Election drama probe ordered into foreign funds used to interfere and boost Arab voters 

Election Committee Chairman and Supreme Court Justice Solberg reportedly ordered Shin Bet head Zini to investigate information concerning foreign funding of a campaign intended to influence Israel’s elections. The suspected scheme allegedly involved substantial sums from Arab entities to boost Arab voter turnout through illegal means. 

 “Serious suspicions have been brought to my attention regarding improper influence on the elections  exerted through funding provided by foreign entities acting against Israeli interests,” Sohlberg writes. “While I cannot attest to the substance of these suspicions, it is my view that given they involve foreign entities there is an obligation to investigate them thoroughly.”

- According to the report, funds originating in Qatar and Turkey allegedly reached Israel through terror-financing channels to influence the election.

- Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Liberman: “We will not sit with either Bibi or Tibi.”If that rules out outside parliamentary support as well, it would shut the door on an Eisenkot minority government dependent on both Liberman and Ahmad Tibi’s party.

- President Herzog urges 'thorough' probe into alleged election interference, warns against 'tarnishing' Arab community.

- Gadi Eisenkot’s plan for this election rested on two things: getting more seats than Likud, and Ra’am being able to make up the difference to reach 61. If he now lacks legitimacy because of his failure to achieve the former, then thanks to the Qatar allegations, Ra’am now lacks legitimacy for the latter. Amit

- Results as of 9:49 a.m., Thursday, October 29, with about 93.8 percent of the vote counted, including the double-envelope ballots:

Blocs

Netanyahu’s coalition: 53

Change bloc: 48

Arab parties: 19 (Joint List 11, Ra’am 8)

Likud: 26

Yashar (Gadi Eisenkot): 21

Beyachad (Naftali Bennett): 12

Joint List: 11

The Democrats: 8

Ra’am: 8

Yisrael Beiteinu: 7

Otzma Yehudit: 7

United Torah Judaism: 7

Shas: 7

Religious Zionism and Zehut: 6