Weather- Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 43F.
OCHD covid numbers since Thanksgiving
- 88 new covid cases in Lakewood 17392/327
- 86 new Covid cases +1 death in Jackson total 8345/123
- 166 new cases in Toms River totals 13974/352
- Admorim and Roshei yeshiva in EY met with the communication Minister to keep the kosher phone industry alive as the country weighs closing down those phone lines. He told them that 50% of the charedim have internet access. See video below.
- New Jersey coronavirus hospitalizations topped 900 for the first time since Oct. 11. Murphy was administered his booster covid shot at Monmouth Medical Center Sunday.
Reporter S Schorr on Twitter
The (frum) birth rate in Lakewood over the past two decades.. the ratio of boys-girls. Every year since 1990 besides for two, 125-200 more boys are being born than girls.
- Cyber Monday today see Deals on Dansdeals
- Mesibas Chanuka at BMG Guest speaker Rav Uri Deutsch shlita 8:00 pm
- Admor M'Kaliv Hadlokas Ner Chanuka tonight 9:00 pm at B:M Shemen L'Mincha 2: Milano drive Lakewood
- Chanukah Gourmet Donuts in Lakewood
Israeli Jelly donuts $2 at Pizza on the 9
- Gelbsteins now selling gourmet donuts open till 6 pm
Sesame bake shop pop up location 1797 Avenue of the States 8:00 am - 9:00 pm
-Hershy's bakery buy 12 get 2 free
- Caffottaria donuts available open until 9 pm
- Kosher West large selection
- Cookie corner open until 5:30 pm will restock after running out yesterday
- Fresh donuts at Sprinkles filled with soft ice cream
- Choco shop Donuts and Drinks
- Evergreen Glicks donuts advertised as best ones in Lakewood
- Seasons new Bakery Black & White Chanukah donuts
- Bagel Nosh.
- Jack Dorsey expected to step down as Twitter CEO Twitter shares surged 11% on the news
- Iranian Brig.-Gen. urges destruction of Israel prior to nuke talks "We will not back off from annihilation of Israel, even one millimeter We want to destroy Zionism in the world,”
- Brown University scientists found "striking evidence of declining overall cognitive functioning in children" from masks and other COVID measures.
-Video: Rav Gamliel Rabinowitz performing the minhag of spinning the Dreidel
Rosh Yeshiva Mir and Viznitz rebbe meet with Communication ministerRav Chaim Kanievsky lighting tonight 2nd. Candle photo Shuki Lerer
Chestnut Shul Annual Mega Chanukah Raffle!
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are there any nice mesibos going on around town? i'd love to bring my children to something hartzig (not vild)
ReplyDeleteSkulen
DeleteEvergreen definitely from the best donuts and cheaper than all these other "gourmet" ones
ReplyDeleteDoes this mean there is no shidduch crisis?
ReplyDeleteAll of those girls that you think are single, aren't really
DeleteThis is old news. NASI is well aware of this data. For this very reason, they encourage boys starting at 21, not 19.
DeleteHowever, even their determination is questionable, as it seems that a one year gap is actually preferable, for the following reasons. In other words, girls should start at 18 and boys at 19.
It is true that in Lakewood, for the past thirteen years, 106 boys were born for every 100 girls. The question is are those six “extra” boys marriageable?
1) The OTD rate could be as high as 4% (the supposed 10% OTD rate supplied by Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics seems a bit high). However, for every OTD girl there are 3 OTD boys. This would mean that 6% of boys go OTD while only 2% of girls go OTD (give or take, these aren’t exact numbers). This would mean that 4 of the extra boys are no longer frum. So we are down to a gender ratio of 100 frum boys to 98 frum girls, right off the bat.
2) Boys lives are much more fragile. For this reason, despite the gender ratio at birth, every year the differential narrows. In Israel, for example, by the time they are in their mid-thirties girls start outnumbering boys.
3) Baby boys are much more likely to be born “severely disabled.” In Australia, for example, around 6% of baby boys are severely disabled, while only 3% of baby girls are severely disabled (despite the fact they abort whenever they suspect downs syndrome). So our original 106/100 ratio includes 3 extra boys that are “severely disabled.”
4) Baalei Teshuva and Geirim are much more likely to be women.
Putting all the numbers together, what is the best age gap? I honestly don’t know. Perhaps 2 year. Perhaps 1 year. Perhaps 0 years. What is for certain is that 3 or more years is killing a significant percentage of girls
Then there are those that divorce. For some people it's multiple times.
DeleteThe (frum) birth rate in Lakewood over the past two decades.. the ratio of boys-girls. Every year since 1990 besides for two, 125-200 more boys are being born than girls.
ReplyDeleteIs the boy population of the typical grade in Lakewood 125-200 more than the girl population of the same grade in Lakewood?
What is the inyan of being mefersem the donut marketplace?
ReplyDeleteפירסומי ניסא
DeleteOTD has a lot of definitions
ReplyDeleteThose for who the system works chose to keep this system.They will preach this system is our tradition.
As it works better for them to have such a nice female crop to choose from. Which is also basis there are so many boys who fall unhealthy in all the different ways
According to Dati surveys there are ten thousand more male singles than females out in the West Bank.Many are from New Jersey or similar regions
' are those six “extra” boys marriageable?'
ReplyDeleteWhat about all those females who are also currently un"marriageable" .
' Baalei Teshuva and Geirim are much more likely to be women'
That only of recent vintage
previously it was hardly the case, most bT institution in decades previous
arguably it was the reverse.
May be we're doing something wrong in other spheres as well
I factored in the unmarriageable girls as well. My point was that a larger percentage of baby boys are unmarriageable than the percentage of baby girls who are unmarriageable. Those factors outweigh most of the gender-ratio that Shlomo Schorr's tweet alluded to. Take the Daati Leumi world. According to a study I just read, regarding the Daati Leumi world, 18% of boys go OTD, while 9% of girls go OTD. So even if 106 boys are born to 100 girls, right off the bat they are in trouble, even without any age gap, and even without the fact that boys are more likely to die, and even without the fact that boys are more likely to be severely disabled. I spoke to a leader in Footsteps. He is oisek in stealing neshamos day and night. He is an expert in this sugya. And he told me that there are as many as 3 times as many OTD boys as there are OTD girls from Yeshivish communities. What percentage of our children go OTD? I don't know, but it's higher than you think (my chavrusa has only two brothers: both are mechalelei shabbos). K'maat, every single Gadol has a grandchild who is OTD.
DeleteI honestly don't know what the right age gap is. I don't claim to know. All I am saying is that ALL these factors must be accounted for. It certainly seems that the current age gap is destroying many girls.
What survey are you referring to (relating to the boys in the West Bank)?
every single Gadol has a grandchild who is OTD
Delete?
Some of us are Sacrifice our opportunity to become leaders as the
primary and foremost obligation is to raise our families properly
Well the grandfather perhaps find a different term however unPC it is. Primal obligations to make sure that grandchildren stay on the right path and derech
correct?
That we have to sacrifice our institutions by giving them over families though it would be better served without such nepotism, because their Primal obligation is to take care of the family first.
"is that ALL these factors must be accounted for"
DeleteAdditionally the issue is not marriageable age then
the primary issue is we're doing a poor job raising a Cadre of young males due to whatever.Within Our system which females don't suffer in the earlier years as much because their whole system's default to begin with . They however suffer in their twenties or so
Why do you assume that we can do a significantly better job raising young males? And why do you assume that we haven't already been trying to do a better job raising males?
DeleteDo you think that the system doesn't care about the fact that boys are going OTD?! The fact is that boys are a) more skeptical by nature; b) have more a yetzer harah for the secular lifestyle, vidai lichakima birimizah. There isn't a single community that doesn't have an OTD problem with their boys.
We have to be open to reality. Boys will be boys. Obviously, we should try to do a better job, and we are. More boys go OTD. More boys are born disabled. More boys die young. Obviously, we are trying to solve all of these issues, but we have to be realistic that many of the "extra" boys aren't marriageable. So we are back to square one: boys have to start shidduchim younger. How much younger? I don't know.
4) Baalei Teshuva and Geirim are much more likely to be women.
ReplyDeleteDon't know if that is true or not but I don't think it effects the Shidduch crisis. From the marriages of FFB to BT that I'm aware of over 90% of the times at least the husband is the BT.
Also the typical BT is not looking for the same type of person for Shidduchim that the typical Yeshivish FFB girl is looking for.
Your factoid - that 90% of the time the husband is the BT - underscores how the shidduch crisis is very real.
DeleteSee, FFB girls don't have anybody to go out with so they "settle," for the lack of a better word, with a BT guy (not that there's anything wrong with BTs). That further hurts the BT girls: not only are there more BT girls than boys; many of the remaining end up marrying the desperate FFB girls.
Google an article from the Forward which displays the serious shidduch (regarding geores, 78% of geirim are female). There is no reason why FFB girls can manage to marry BT guys, but not the reverse, other than the fact that the shidduch crisis is real (as a matter of fact, a FFB boy to a BT girl is probably a better shidduch than a BT boy to a FFB girl).
The survey was from a few years ago
ReplyDeletemay have been Moshe Feiglin's site