Israel Election Update

- Israel's Central Elections Committee has begun counting absentee ballots in the elections for the 26th Knesset. These ballots include votes cast by IDF soldiers and other eligible voters who voted outside their assigned polling stations.

- With approximately 90% of the votes counted, the latest election update shows Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud remaining the largest party, with 26 seats, followed by Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party with 21.

Election Analysis by Amit Segal: It will take time, maybe a long time, to understand what’s happening. But one thing is already clear: Benjamin Netanyahu will remain prime minister for the foreseeable future. He could do it at the head of a unity government, by peeling off parties or candidates from the other side, or as caretaker through another election. Even if the next round ends more or less where this one did, there’s no way to move him.

So the picture is clarifying, and Netanyahu holds the stronger hand. The other side’s only card is the threat of a minority government, and it worries Likud a great deal. Not because the chances are high. But just because you’re paranoid doesn’t mean they’re not after you.

I think the odds of a minority government right now are close to zero. At Yashar’s faction meeting today, at least four of its members made clear they don’t support such a government and couldn’t live with it even briefly. It would need Ra’am’s active support and the Joint List’s abstention, Balad’s anti-Zionist faction included, and for them that’s unacceptable.

What the opposition still has is a stick: replacing the Knesset speaker and trying to push legislation through. That’s the dilemma. If they’re headed to another election anyway, they can tell voters: we replaced the speaker, we passed a law for a state commission of inquiry, and we stopped the government from weakening the attorney general. But electing a new speaker is a permanent, irreversible move. Once they make it, this option is effectively dead.

- The current assessment is that Gadi Eisenkot will receive the first mandate to form a government, with the Arab parties also expected to recommend him. According to Ami Yarchi, Netanyahu’s circle says the prime minister has no interest in going first, fearing that a failed attempt could leave his coalition partners feeling free to leave.

- Ch 14: The most realistic option is a unity government pushed by President Herzog and maybe by President Trump which would have Netanyahu serve the first two years as PM in exchange for an agreement to retire from politics afterwards and receive a presidential pardon

- Likud claims Arab parties 'stole' Israeli election, demands investigation.Likud announced that it would submit hundreds of testimonies and pieces of evidence to the Israel Police, Shin Bet, and the Central Elections Committee.

-Approximately 5 mandates thrown away from the right bloc parties who didn't pass the threshold 

Over 230,000 votes wasted

Hendel & Zelekha: 127,884 votes

Ofer Winter: 78,337 votes

Tzeva Shachor: 9,502 votes

 Leitner's HaTzibur HaCharedi: 9,029 votes

 Noam: 7,503 votes

- Results from 100% of the votes counted, excluding double-envelope ballots:

53-48-19

Netanyahu with a 5 seat advantage.

- Analysis Netanyahu has three main options for forming Israel’s next government: form a unity government with Gadi Eisenkot, win over an opposition party, or allow negotiations to fail and face another election.

With his coalition projected at 53 seats, Netanyahu needs eight more seats to secure a parliamentary majority. However, opposition leaders’ resistance and the political compromises required make negotiations difficult.

If talks fail, Netanyahu would remain caretaker prime minister until a new government is formed. A fresh election could benefit his bloc if voters from parties that failed to cross the electoral threshold shift toward Likud, although that outcome is uncertain.

Bottom line: Netanyahu retains leverage as caretaker prime minister, but neither side has a confirmed majority. The outcome depends on whether political rivals can reach a coalition agreement or Israel must return to the polls.

- President Herzog: “One thing must be understood, and I said this even before the elections: We must do everything possible, especially after yesterday, to avoid another round of elections. Therefore, I expect everyone who comes here to do so with an open mind.”

- Gadi Eisenkot faces four possible paths to forming Israel’s next government with a projected 48 seats for the change bloc: a unity government with Netanyahu, a coalition supported by Arab parties, an alliance with ultra-Orthodox parties, or failure to form a government and go to new elections.

Each option presents major challenges, particularly disagreements over military conscription, national security, Gaza, and political principles. If coalition negotiations fail, another candidate could get a chance to form a government, potentially leading to new elections.

Bottom line: Eisenkot’s challenge is not just securing the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority, but building a coalition whose members can agree on Israel’s most divisive issues and keep the government stable.(Jewish warrior on x)

- As of 12:30 pm With 84% of ballots counted, pro-Netanyahu bloc at 54 seats, Eisenkot-led bloc at 49, Arab parties at 17

As of 10:50 a.m. on October 28, approximately 70.7% of votes have been counted.

Current Netanyahu Right coalition: 54 seats

Change Bloc: 47 seat

Arab Joint List: 13 seat

Ra’am Arab larty: 6 seats

- Likud – 27

- Yashar – 20 (-1)

- Joint List – 13 (+1)

- Beyachad (Together) – 11

- The Democrats – 8

- Yisrael Beiteinu – 8

- United Torah Judaism – 7

- Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) – 7

- Shas – 7

- Ra’am – 6

- Religious Zionism and Zehut – 6

-The Tzibbur Hacharedi party  by Moti Leitner failed to take off with only 1.29% of the vote in charedi cities,coming in under 8000 votes for now.

- Shas party collapse as voters went to Ben Gvir party

- The Tzeva Shachor party did better than Tzibbut charedi party

- Last night, the exit polls told one story: Netanyahu had lost, but it wasn’t clear who on the other side had won. This morning, the results are telling another. Netanyahu hasn’t won yet, but the change bloc has clearly lost.

- Amit Segal: If you look at the vote shift itself, almost no seats moved from the Netanyahu bloc to the change bloc. The decline has three causes. First, the Arab vote increased by a dramatic one percentage point. Second, no votes were “wasted” on the Meretz and Balad side, as they were last time. And third, about 2.5 percent of the votes were “wasted” on the Netanyahu bloc’s side: Ofer Winter, a few scattered votes for Noam and Leitner, and the Ethiopian Immigrants Party.

- Israel’s 2026 election results could be significantly affected by approximately 600,000 double-envelope ballots, many of which are cast by IDF soldiers and reservists. The counting process may continue until Friday.

These absentee ballots have historically favored parties other than Arab and Charedi parties. However, the large number of reservists serving this year makes the political impact harder to predict. According to the financial daily Globes, Arab parties could lose Knesset seats once the final votes are counted.

Other double-envelope voters include prisoners, medical personnel, people with medical conditions, and Israeli representatives serving abroad.