Sukkos 5787 Weather Outlook Lakewood

Sukkos Weather Outlook – NJ/NY Area. Sukkos Nor’easter Threat: Heavy Rain, Strong Winds and Coastal Flooding Possible; Storm Track Remains Uncertain.

See below about tying down Schach

A developing  nor’easter could bring heavy rain, strong winds and coastal flooding to the New Jersey/New York area over Sukkos with conditions potentially beginning Friday and becoming more unsettled over first day/Shabbos and Sexind day Yom Tov on Sunday.

Yom tov meals forecast

1st night Friday night, 7–11 PM: Around 66° at 7 PM, dropping to the upper 50s by 11 PM. Chance of rain around 35–37%, with strong winds and gusts potentially reaching 30–36 mph.

Shabbos day, 11 AM: Around 62°, with north winds gusts around 31 mph. About a 44% chance of rain.

Second night Motzei Shabbos, 8 PM–12 AM: Around 61° at 8 PM, dropping to about 57° by midnight. Around a 55% chance of rain, with winds easing to 11–15 mph.

Second day Sunday morning, 11 AM: Around 63°, winds gusts around 30+ mph. Rain remains possible, around a 45% chance.

Bottom line: Friday night is mainly a wind concern, Shabbos day is cool and windy with some rain risk, Second night has the highest rain risk, and Sunday morning remains cool, windy and potentially wet.

Friday  Erev Sukkos:Rain chances are currently around 20%–40% along the Jersey Shore, with showers potentially spreading inland later in the day. Forecast confidence remains low because models differ on the storm’s eventual track.

Friday Night –First Night Sukkos: The main concern is increasing rain and wind particularly closer to the coast. Conditions could range from relatively manageable to wet and windy depending on the storm’s track.

Shabbos Day: Rain chances are expected to expand inland toward the I-95 corridor, with stronger winds possible. Along the Jersey Shore, conditions could be significantly rougher, with gusts potentially reaching around 50 mph, high surf, dangerous rip currents and beach erosion.

Motzei Shabbos second Night Sukkos: The unsettled weather could continue, with rain and wind remaining more likely near the coast. The exact severity will depend heavily on how close the coastal low tracks to New Jersey

Sunday:Rain chances could become statewide with continued wind and potentially heavy rain at times. The current outlook suggests the storm may affect New England more significantly than the Jersey Shore, but that remains uncertain.

Sunday Night into Monday: The storm is expected to begin pulling away, allowing rain chances and winds to gradually decrease.

Bottom line: Right now, the Jersey Shore appears more vulnerable than areas farther inland, but it is still too early to know exactly how much rain and wind Lakewood and the surrounding areas will receive. The biggest forecast question is the storm’s track: a farther offshore track would mean less impact locally, while a closer track could bring heavier rain, stronger winds and coastal flooding. The forecast should become much clearer as we get closer to Friday.

To secure the Schach one can place 2×4 beams or branches over it. You can tie down schach using natural twine made from unprocessed plant materials suchas cotton or Hemp. 

Using zip-ties to tie down the schach so that they don't blow away is a problem if otherwise the schach would blow away in a Ruach Metzuya a normal wind. After the fact, the sukkah is still acceptable, though it should be avoided. If the schach is secure enough that it'll stay for a normal wind then using the zip-ties is totally fine since it is only adding extra security to avoid uncommon winds  Rav Nissim Karelitz (Chut Shani p. 210) writes that a person should not tie down his schach with zip ties. But if his schach would have stayed in a normal anyway without the zip ties it is fine to use them because of an abnormal wind. Piskei Teshuvot 629:11 agrees and also quotes this from Avnei Yishfeh 1:120. Rav Aryeh Lebowitz explains that the only issue of zip ties is maamid since it enables the schach to be held in place and not blow away. The entire issue of maamid is rabbinic and initially an issue but not after the fact. If the schach would be able to withstand normal winds then you can add the zip ties to add security so it doesn't blow off in an uncommon wind (ruach sheino metzuya). Star-K and OU come to the same conclusion in terms of it only being an issue if it is going to blow away in a normal wind. (Miyodea)